Today is Tuesday, March 15, 2022. Yesterday, March 14, marked the anniversary of the city’s first COVID-19 victim, a woman who died at Wyckoff Heights Medical Center in Brooklyn. The first victim of the coronavirus was an 82-year-old woman who suffered from severe emphysema. This fact is reported in an article in today’s Daily News called “Mourning of Ann’y of 1st COVID death: 82-year-old in B’klyn followed by nearly 40K more N.Y.ers we ‘must remember,’ Adams says.”

Our new mayor, Eric Adams, spoke on the solemn anniversary, saying, “This pandemic has caused incalculable suffering and pain for our families, friends and neighbors.” Adams memorialized all of those New Yorkers who have died as a result of contracting the disease, stating, “As we work to recover and rebuild New York City, we must remember those that we have lost and carry on their stories.”

City Hall and major municipal buildings in all five boroughs were ordered to be aglow in amber lights on Monday evening to commemorate the anniversary.

Yesterday also marked the last day for Dr. Dave Chokshi as the city’s health commissioner. He started in August 2020 and helped lead the city’s response through several waves of infections and deaths. His successor is Dr. Ashwin Vasan, a top public health adviser to Adams.

In terms of who is vaccinated in New York, an estimated 75% of all New Yorkers are now fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The pandemic is now entering its third year, as the official global death toll from COVID-19 eclipsed 6 million unfortunate souls earlier this month. Even though people are shedding their masks, travel is resuming, and businesses are reopening around the globe, the pandemic is far from over with us.

The United States is nearing 1 million reported deaths before the summer, despite its wealth and vaccine availability.

Due to waning effectiveness, particularly against variants like Omicron, a fourth COVID-19 vaccine shot will probably be required to keep hospitals and morgues quiescent, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said on Sunday’s Meet the Press.

Thus the last two years have been a major roller coaster ride for many New Yorkers. Who can forget being locked down for months on end and listening to now-ousted Governor Andrew Cuomo deliver his updates on the COVID-19 situation on television? Who can forget how apprehensive we all were about contracting this dread disease? Who can forget how slowly time elapsed during this time?

Segueing into another kind of war, the Russian invasion of Ukraine that has entered its 20th day of operation, there is an opinion for The Hill that gloriously predicts the fall of Vladimir Putin even as the Ukrainian people are fleeing from their country as a result of the bombs and shells laying waste to the infrastructure. The opinion is called “Why Vladimir Putin will fall,” by Alexander J. Motyl and it foresees the eventual deposition of the Russian autocrat. The writer references the opinions of Russian, Ukrainian, Eastern European, and American analysts who openly predict that Putin’s days are numbered. “Some even say that his end is both inevitable and near.”

Motyl writes that the reason for Putin’s end “generally rests on his genocidal war against Ukraine.” The decision to invade Ukraine has been a strategic mistake, according to the writer.

The resistance of the Ukrainian people has far exceeded anyone’s expectations, thus “transforming what was supposed to be a grand and glorious little war into a slog at best and a looming Russian defeat at worst.” Motyl pays tribute to the Ukrainian army that has fought the Russians to a standstill, imposed enormous costs in lives, planes, helicopters, tanks, and armored personnel carriers. Expert military analysts, along with most Ukrainians, actually predict victory.

What Putin has accomplished with his little dirty war is uniting the world against him, something he definitely didn’t foresee. Russia then has become a pariah and a rogue; its regime is termed “fascist” by leaders all over the world. Putin is now frequently compared to Adolf Hitler, and Russia’s citizens are unwelcome in many parts of the world.

Those who predict Putin’s end suggest that he won’t survive because growing casualties and economic collapse eventually will drive many Russians into the streets and induce economic and political elites to conspire against him. Therefore, the combination of popular protest, elite machinations, state failure, declining legitimacy, a grinding war, and international isolation inevitably will have one consequence: Putin’s demise. Some analysts even suggest that Putin risks assassination with his stupendously unpopular war.

Other despots that have been overthrown are mentioned by Motyl such as Czar Nicholas II, Nicaragua’s Anastasio Somoza, the Shah of Iran, and Nicolae Ceausescu of Romania who have been deposed or fled their countries, even though they had the support of the military and secret police. Depending on circumstances, soldiers and secret policemen often drop their weapons and run or change sides. According to Motyl, East Germany’s Stasi agents simply packed their bags and left the secret police headquarters.

The loyalty of the elites to Putin is not guaranteed either, especially when prosperity and survival appear less certain at this moment for the oligarchs that used to show their fealty to the autocratic ruler of Russia. Elites then could jump ship or attempt to liquidate the captain if they feel they need to. The phenomenon of Russia’s looming economic collapse and international isolation will contribute to the loss of billions of dollars in the oligarchs’ hands.

As the war intensifies, Putin’s growing isolation in his bunker will reveal a more vulnerable man than ever before. It will be harder to inspire frontline soldiers who are dying in large numbers, assuage impoverished citizens, fix the decrepit economy, and retain the loyalty of his cronies. We all know what happened to Hitler when he was ensconced in his underground bunker with Eva Braun. Could this possibly be Putin’s fate as well?

It’s now getting late here.

Tomorrow the weather is supposed to be springlike like today. So if you can, enjoy it as much as you are able to.

Stay safe and be well.