Today is Tuesday, February 27, 2024. Today is the Democratic primary in the battleground state of Michigan and there is major concern that progressive voters in that state will register their distaste for the incumbent, Joe Biden, by voting “uncommitted.” An opinion by John Halpin for CNN entitled “Opinion: Don’t take the progressive threats in Michigan seriously” tackles this concerning issue head-on and comes to the conclusion that it should not hamper Biden’s chances for reelection all that much. Let’s see why.

Halpin states that “progressive activists have decided to use this interlude to attack Biden for his centrist positions on immigration, energy policy and the Israel-Hamas war, in particular.” The Democratic member of Congress from Michigan, Rashida Tlaib, has registered her personal criticism of Biden for his policy toward Gaza and it was she who urged residents in her state to vote “uncommitted” in Tuesday’s primary, openly challenging and undermining her own party’s presidential candidate. Tlaib’s goal is to ostensibly prove to Biden through this primary challenge that if he doesn’t change course on Gaza, he risks losing votes in the November election.

The claim that young people or racial and ethnic minority voters won’t turn out for Democrats unless the party pursues maximally leftist positions on select issues is built on the false assumption that the default ideological position of base Democratic voters is progressive.

In fact, the opposite is true, according to Halpin, who cite Black and Hispanic Democrats, who comprise about 30 percent of the party, that are far more moderate or conservative than they are liberal, and although Millennials and Gen Zers are more liberal than other age groups, this perspective is far from universal among younger voters.

Although Democrats have become more liberal since the 1990s, the Gallup data show the idealogical trends among the wider electorate mean that there is more for Biden to lose than to gain in pursuing a hard-left perspective in politics. Likewise, the Pew Research Center’s political typology shows that a mere 6 percent of Americans overall fall into the “progressive left” camp with extremely left-wing views on immigration, the Black Lives Matter movement, the military, and America’s engagement in the world.

If we look at Michigan specifically, the threat of Arab Americans tanking Biden must also be put in wider perspective. As voting trends show, Democratic support has been steadily declining since highs in the Obama years – mainly due to these voters’ more conservative views on social issues like gay rights and abortion as much as critical views on foreign policy.

Even the cities with the highest proportion of Arab Americans consisting of Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Hamtramck, and Livonia, Biden still defeated Drumpf by a combined 38,000 or so votes. In 2020, Biden’s statewide margin was about 155,000 votes. Even if Biden’s advantage in those four cities was completely erased, Biden would still carry Michigan by more than 100,000 votes.

Of course, the kind of close election expected in 2024 means every vote matters, but it would be a mistake to think that shifting Biden’s policy to the left would be a net gain for him. As pollster Mark Mellman of Democratic Majority for Israel rightly states,”You’ll find there are more people that are likely to vote for Biden because of his pro-Israel stance than to vote against him because of that.” Mellman pointed out that Jewish voters make up about 2 to 3 percent of the electorate as opposed to Muslims, who account for 1 percent or less.

Thus, according to Halpin, the “path to reelection for Biden goes through the vital center, not through the noisy left.”

As of now, I’m watching the results being aired on Chris Hayes MSNBC’s program in which the uncommitted vote reached double digits, at 16.3 percent. Biden snared 78.5 percent of the vote before polls closed at 9 p.m. The repugnican frontrunner, unfortunately, is ahead of Nikki Haley about 2 to 1. Where were all of those voters opposed to voting for this bastard in The Wolverine State? Therefore, he is the projected winner in the Republican primary in Michigan. Shit!

I go with the voter in Michigan who just said, “This is too an important election to go uncommitted.” It definitely is and anyone who submits to this way of voting will just succeed in taking votes away from Biden and giving them to the criminal! Let’s hope they realize this by Election Day.

Stay safe and be well.

Here is Atticus sprawled out and looking up at me in the hallway.