Today is Sunday, February 2, 2025. Darling little Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog, has spoken: We will have six more weeks of winter. He saw his shadow, thus serving as a harbinger of six more weeks of cold and ice. Every year, on February 2, members of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club make the pilgrimage to Gobbler’s Knob – Phil’s official home. Today was no different. In reality, winter will finally end on the spring equinox, known also as the vernal equinox, on March 20 at 5:01 Eastern Time, regardless of today’s prediction. An online article by CNN meteorologists Mary Gilbert and Monica Garrett lays out the yearly ritual of trusting a groundhog with predicting an early spring in the piece entitled “What did the groundhog see? Punxsutawney Phil’s winter predictions are in.”

The little furry fellow has been prognosticating since the late 1800s, but his recent forecasts would have a better track record if he just flipped a coin if he knew how: He has only been right about 35 percent of the time since 2005, according to data analyzed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

However, his call for an early spring last year came true. February 2024 was the third warmest on record for the Lower 48. March also ended up much warmer than normal, according to NOAA data.

If you don’t trust the prognostications of a groundhog, then you could turn to meteorologists at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center who produce forecasts for temperatures and precipitation across the United States on timescales ranging from one week to more than a year.

Their outlook for this month calls for above-average temperatures, or a potential early spring, thus contradicting Phil’s prediction of more wintry weather over the next six weeks. Their prediction covers parts of the Rockies through the south and much of the East. Below-average temperatures from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the Midwest could see an extended winter. These regional trends are likely to continue into early spring, the center’s forecasts through April show.

As experienced by millions of Americans so far, rounds of brutal cold have pounded the eastern half of the country all winter.

It was the coldest presidential inauguration in 40 years and cold unusually far south ushered in a historic snowstorm for the Gulf Coast. It’s been one of the 10-coldest winters for dozens of cities east of the Mississippi River, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

But the west has remained warm this winter following the warmest fall on record for the Lower 48. Phoenix, Las Vegas, and San Francisco are just a few cities experiencing one of their 10-warmest winters.

Warmer winters aren’t a fluke, even when punctuated with seasonably appropriate cold. Winter has become the fastest-warming season for nearly 75 percent of the country as temperatures rise globally in a world warming due to fossil fuel production.

Because of this global trend, unfortunately, it would seem that Phil’s prediction of six more weeks of winter is a bad bet in an increasingly warming world.

Today still being rather cold, Elliot and I drove with our neighbor/friend “Diane” to Park Slope to partake of Turkish and Mediterranean cuisine at Tava, located on 5th Avenue. We had proposed seeing Diane this weekend after we got back from giving the Nissan Altima to Elliot’s daughter. Today was a good day to venture out to Park Slope, I guess, since the “Stupid” Bowl is next week. The only favor we asked of Diane is that she drive this time since we’re still reluctant to take our new Subaru around everywhere. But we know we have to eventually succumb to driving it like we did the Nissan 14 years ago.

We met Diane downstairs at 2; we had a 3 p.m. reservation. We walked Diane to her garage on 112th Street and embarked on our drive to Brooklyn. I give Diane credit for driving us since we encountered many a double-parked car along our route to the Turkish restaurant and she took it with customary aplomb.

We arrived close to our reservation time, at 2:45, with Diane parking around the corner. Now it was time to sample such Mediterranean delights as baba ganoush, red lentil soup, and chicken adana kebab, which is what I ordered, along with a fresh cup of American coffee. Elliot ordered the chicken dish as well, and Diane ordered the beef shish kebab instead. Even though I’m not particularly fond of this cuisine, the food at Tava was exceptional. For dessert, we ordered the baklava. Tava’s baklava wasn’t as gooey as most baklava I’ve tasted. This dessert contained the overwhelming presence of pistachio.

We sat in the restaurant for close to 2 hours before asking for the bill. No one was pressing us to leave, so we didn’t. I even had two cups of coffee or was it three?

Traffic moved well on the Brooklyn/Queens Expressway. I didn’t even check when we got home. It might have been 5:40 or so. I accompanied Diane to her garage, while Elliot excused himself to go to the bathroom.

Before saying good night to Diane in the elevator, I thanked her again for driving us to Park Slope. She said she thoroughly enjoyed her time out with us, which was music to my ears.

It’s another week under Dump II. Groan! Looking ahead, I see that this week’s temperatures will not be below zero, thank God. As of now, the high for Thursday is 48 degrees, with an 80 percent chance of rain. I’ll take that over snow and much colder temps.

And so it went!